{"id":1576,"date":"2016-04-25T07:40:01","date_gmt":"2016-04-25T14:40:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/?p=1576"},"modified":"2017-02-24T09:19:44","modified_gmt":"2017-02-24T16:19:44","slug":"playing-the-planning-poker-king","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/?p=1576","title":{"rendered":"Playing The Planning Poker King"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Oh Estimate my Estimate!<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

“KEATING:\u00a0\u00a0. . . Now, we all have a great need for acceptance. But you must trust that your beliefs are unique, your own, even though others may think them odd or unpopular, even though the herd may go, “That’s baaaaad.” Robert Frost said, “Two roads diverged in a wood and I, I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” Now, I want you to find your own walk right now. Your own way of striding, pacing. Any direction. Anything you want. Whether it’s proud, whether it’s silly, anything. Gentlemen, the courtyard is yours.<\/p>\n

The students begin walking about, some walking casually, others\u00a0making up silly walks. Keating notices that Charlie is still\u00a0leaning up against one of the pillars.<\/p>\n

KEATING:\u00a0You don’t have to perform. Just make it for yourself. Mr. Dalton? You be joining us?<\/p>\n

CHARLIE:\u00a0Exercising the right not to walk.<\/p>\n

KEATING:\u00a0Thank you, Mr. Dalton. You just illustrated the point. Swim against the stream.”<\/p>\n

-Dead Poets Society<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

I have yet to be on a team that has really great software\u00a0estimates.\u00a0\u00a0It’s not a big deal, it is just reality.\u00a0\u00a0Buy me a pint\u00a0and I will talk with\u00a0you about it more in depth sometime.<\/p>\n

Estimates\u00a0are<\/em>\u00a0a reality because capital has to pay for software but you can read all the literature you want and you will find technique after technique coming into existence and being tossed.\u00a0\u00a0Because it is so difficult to do.\u00a0\u00a0It is almost futile.\u00a0\u00a0Software is never done, and requirements change.\u00a0\u00a0Constantly.<\/p>\n

Estimation\u00a0can be\u00a0<\/i>a valuable activity.\u00a0\u00a0It forces the business and management to pony up requirements.\u00a0\u00a0It gives the developers exposure into other pieces of the project, and to look at other solutions and if done right to discuss tasks.\u00a0\u00a0Depending of course on who is running the show.\u00a0\u00a0Of course on many teams I’ve worked with\u00a0\u00a0— and here is a recurring theme — the developers will go with the flow and not ask questions having fear of being outed due to their estimates.\u00a0\u00a0There are a lot of reasons for this, and a lot of defense techniques for this.\u00a0\u00a0I know a lot of architect types will over estimate to push back.\u00a0\u00a0Also, that you take a developer’s estimate and double it as we developers, myself included, are overly optimistic.\u00a0\u00a0Good managers do this.<\/p>\n

There are a lot of variables for bad estimates besides scope changes, req changes, and such.\u00a0\u00a0For instance\u00a0in some companies the developers are rotated every 6 months to a year off their current project onto another one or maybe management teams are rotated and new styles are brought in; this destroys the estimates for a while.\u00a0\u00a0Also these things\u00a0can destroy estimate credibility and developer morale.<\/p>\n

Another is a having the wrong people influencing the estimates because they are in positions of hire\/fire authority.\u00a0\u00a0In the past, agile was to alleviate this particular problem but the issue\u00a0has sprung up again as non-technical people have taken over the SCM roles and I have seen them even bypass entire team’s estimates and write in their own, for their own career goals.<\/p>\n

Also\u00a0holding developers to SWAG estimates.\u00a0\u00a0This particular one is a huge peeve for me, to ask for accurate estimates based on no information whatsoever and then hold a person responsible for it.<\/p>\n

I guess in the end the LEVEL OF TRUST is what really seems to be a concerting factor of creating an estimate.\u00a0\u00a0Less trust, more defensive behavior, bad estimate.<\/p>\n

One thing that has come up in the last several years for me are teams doing planning poker.\u00a0\u00a0I’ve done it with cards, cell phone apps and online.\u00a0\u00a0With whiteboards.\u00a0\u00a0With and without QA.\u00a0\u00a0With BAs, which never goes over well due to the extreme conflict of interest (more features fast vs. actual dev time).\u00a0\u00a0Whatever estimation fetish management wants I have been willing to try.<\/p>\n

All planning poker methods have a\u00a0king card — a pass card<\/strong><\/em>.\u00a0\u00a0Allowing the king card has always been for the better on the teams I have been on.\u00a0\u00a0For instance, new developers play a king quite often and rightly so since they have no knowledge of the system.\u00a0\u00a0For me, I play it whenever I have no knowledge and trust the other knowledgeable developers to do an estimate.\u00a0\u00a0Also, if the information presented to me wasn’t as complete as I like but I feel I am coerced not to ask any more questions I may play it.\u00a0\u00a0In all cases it is because I am going to be held to a SWAG\u00a0and the info I have isn’t enough.\u00a0\u00a0It may generate talk.\u00a0\u00a0The alternative would be to play an 81 card on say a general 3 estimate. \u00a0This however wouldn’t be the same thing — that would be an attempt to drive an estimate up; versus playing the king card –\u00a0“I haven’t a clue at all.” \u00a0Big diff.<\/p>\n

Some teams choose not to use this and may force their developers to make a wild uneducated guess but I feel that is a mistake. \u00a0It creates a level of distrust because it is rooted in distrust and other motivations, like CYA.\u00a0\u00a0The effect is, and I have seen this, is that people tend to estimate not on the choice of free and open discussion and the clarity of making a good SWAG in mind but out of self preservation.\u00a0\u00a0“Hmmm what will the lead or the most vocal\/verbally putting down person vote? I will try to do that so as to avoid an unpleasant situation and not have my own credibility destroyed.”\u00a0\u00a0Or “I will tell them what they want to hear and hopefully it will go that way.”\u00a0\u00a0The ways to assassinate estimation are as numerous as brands owned by InBev. (Et tu, Pacifico?)<\/p>\n

From my point of view\u00a0\u00a0the king\u00a0card\u00a0*is* about trust and and human reality. People over process.<\/p>\n

My only solution is this: lock development\u00a0colleagues<\/em>\u00a0alone in rooms, not management\/BA’s\/stakeholders if you want good estimates.\u00a0\u00a0Also, trust.\u00a0\u00a0Lack of trust will get you\u00a0the estimation you want to hear, not reality. \u00a0Then good luck after that.<\/p>\n

Some Further Reading<\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/rclayton.silvrback.com\/software-estimation-is-a-losing-game<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/ardalis.com\/5-laws-of-software-estimates<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/martinfowler.com\/bliki\/PurposeOfEstimation.html<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/javatroopers.com\/Mythical_Man_Month.html#Chapter_2<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.mountaingoatsoftware.com\/agile\/planning-poker<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“KEATING:\u00a0\u00a0. . . Now, we all have a great need for acceptance. But you must trust that your beliefs are unique, your own, even though others may think them odd or unpopular, even though the herd may go, “That’s baaaaad.” Robert Frost said, “Two roads diverged in a wood and I, I took the one […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[4,3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1576"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1576"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1576\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1692,"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1576\/revisions\/1692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/10kdev.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}